Abstract
Drought has significant impacts on the agricultural productivity and well-being of Pacific Island communities. In this study, a user-centred integrated early warning system (I-EWS) for drought was investigated for Papua New Guinea (PNG). The I-EWS combines satellite products (Standardised Precipitation Index and Vegetation Health Index) with seasonal probabilistic forecasting outputs (chance of exceeding median rainfall). Internationally accepted drought thresholds for each of these inputs are conditionally combined to trigger three drought early warning stages—”DROUGHT WATCH”, “DROUGHT ALERT” and “DROUGHT EMERGENCY”. The developed I-EWS for drought was used to examine the evolution of a strong El Niño-induced drought event in 2015 as well as a weaker La Niña-induced dry period in 2020. Examining the evolution of drought early warnings at a provincial level, it was found that tailored warning lead times of 3–5 months could have been possible for several impacted PNG provinces. These lead times would enable increasingly proactive drought responses with the potential for prioritised allocation of funds at a provincial level. The methodology utilised within this study uses inputs that are openly and freely available globally which indicates promising potential for adaptation of the developed user-centred I-EWS in other Pacific Island Countries that are vulnerable to drought.
Highlights
Drought is a cumulative climatic phenomenon that has far reaching social and environmental impacts resulting from a precipitation deficit
This study presented a proof of concept of an agrometeorological drought integrated early warning system (I-early warning system (EWS)) for Papua New Guinea (PNG) that pairs satellite remote sensing data with outputs from probabilistic forecasting models
The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), Vegetation Health Index (VHI) and chance of exceeding median rainfall (CEMR) were combined as monitoring and forecasting components of an EWS
Summary
Drought is a cumulative climatic phenomenon that has far reaching social and environmental impacts resulting from a precipitation deficit. The Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are composed of 15 heterogenous, diverse countries that occupy the region spanning 15◦ N to 23◦ S within the Western Pacific Ocean. Despite their varied physical, historical and climatological characteristics, PICs share common vulnerabilities such as small populations, significant habitation in low-lying coastal areas and fragile economies. Historical and climatological characteristics, PICs share common vulnerabilities such as small populations, significant habitation in low-lying coastal areas and fragile economies This makes drought impacts dire for the livelihoods of drought-vulnerable communities in these countries [2,3]. The 2020 World Risk Report found PICs such as Vanuatu, Tonga, the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea (PNG)
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