Building an agent-based techno-economic assessment coupled with life cycle assessment of biomass to methanol supply chains

Abstract

Methanol is a key product in the chemical industry, not only for producing other higher economic value chemicals, but also serves as a source of renewable energy that can substantially reduce carbon emissions. However, limited data are available on methanol total supply chain costs that consists of production, biomass cost, investment cost and the efficiency of the conversion processes. This paper recommends using an agent-based simulation–optimization in analyzing and reporting results by system elements (techno-economic assessment) or unit processes (life cycle assessment) as well as by the overall product system, of methanol supply chain. Major decision making are included in the agent-based simulation–optimization model to evaluate methanol synthesis pathways. This evaluation includes biomass and methanol ordering policy, capital budgeting during the lifetime of the methanol supply chain, carbon emissions per metric ton of methanol with specific focus on contribution to Indonesia Gross Domestic Product. The principal results obtained from the agent-based simulation show a better conversion technology pathway that leads to lower carbon emissions, higher internal rate of return, shorter payback period, and less price sensitivity of the methanol supply chain. The article proposes methanol from biogas as the chosen conversion technology pathway by considering its capability of sequestering carbon dioxide from bio-digester and lower capital investment, as well as its economic attractiveness to methanol production investors.