Building a System Dynamics Model to Support Water Management: A Case Study of the Semiarid Region in the Brazilian Northeast

Wanderbeg Correia de Araujo,Oz Sahin,Karla Oliveira Esquerre

doi:10.3390/w11122513

Wanderbeg Correia de Araujo, Oz Sahin + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/w11122513

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Journal: Water	Publication Date: Nov 28, 2019
Citations: 20	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Universidade Federal da Bahia, Griffith University

Abstract

In recent centuries, water consumption rates have more than doubled and the population growth rate is rising constantly. As a result, water scarcity is now one of the main problems to be faced, mainly in semiarid regions. In light of such a dilemma, this study aims to develop a system dynamics model in order to evaluate the water system in the semiarid region of the state of Paraíba—located in the Brazilian Northeast—and it focus on the following two issues: (1) measures that could have been taken with respect to the recent water crisis (2012–2017); (2) simulating water availability up to 2025. It was observed that, despite the options of in-demand management tools being efficient solutions for water scarcity in the short term (e.g., the influence of scarcity-based tariffs in reducing water use), such tools would not suffice in a context of severe drought within a water-providing system that depends heavily on rainfall. However, certain policies involving water-supply management (e.g., wastewater reuse and inter-basin water transfer) are very effective in maintaining water supply and avoiding a water collapse in the region. Furthermore, employing the Monte Carlo approach in simulating the system dynamic proved that the water supply is sensitive to scarcity-based tariffs, wastewater reuse, and inter-basin water transfer. An important advancement in this study was the simulation of a methodology for pricing that encourages rational use of water-based on its scarcity, which in turn increases revenue and investment in other water-management strategies.

Highlights

The security of potable water is a growing concern, since population growth, climate change, rapid urbanization, and increasing demands for water due to the upturn of economic growth place considerable pressure on available water resources [1]
This study aims to develop a system dynamics (SD) model to evaluate the water system in Paraíba’s semiarid region and address the following two issues: (1) measures that could have been taken with respect to the recent water crisis (2012–2017); and (2) simulating water availability up to 2025
Was taken into consideration [12]. The cities receiving their water supply from this reservoir face an array of challenges, occurring. The cities receiving their water supply from this reservoir face an array of challenges, occurring principally due to hydroclimatic aspects in the Paraíba River region—the main source of the reservoir principally due to hydroclimatic aspects in the Paraíba River region—the main source of the reservoir (Table 1) [13,14]—as well as factors linked to municipal water management

Summary

Introduction

The security of potable water is a growing concern, since population growth, climate change, rapid urbanization, and increasing demands for water due to the upturn of economic growth place considerable pressure on available water resources [1]. There are two distinct types of policies that water-management companies and their officials can adopt: managing water demand (such as water restriction or prices) and increasing water supply (desalination, recycling rainwater, and inter-basin water transfer). These two policies are interconnected, as more effective demand management (e.g., optimized water prices) can lead to

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