Building a GERT model of life cycle of educational and scientific information resources using Process Mining technology

Abstract

The main priority of this article is to develop a tool for numerical forecasting of the life cycle of information resources based on actual life cycle data in the form of event logs of the resource history. To solve this problem, we used the GERT network device. To build a GERT network describes the life cycle model of an information resource, we were used methods of intellectual analysis of processes (Process Mining) implemented with the ProM Framework. In the course of the work, an analysis of the life cycle of information resources of the Scientific electronic online library was carried out. The work considers the process of extracting data used for modeling the GERT network, as well as the process of identifying the law of distribution of the probability density of the duration of the life cycle stages. The model of the GERT network is constructed and the law of distribution of the probability density of the duration of the life cycle of an information resource was described. The obtained result confirms the applicability of Process Mining technology to probabilistic analysis and forecasting of the life cycle of information resources.