Build Probability Distribution Maps of Flight Risk During Wake Encountering

Abstract

Under the background of increasing wake vortex problems, flight risk probabilities during wake encountering are evaluated using complex system theory and multivariate extreme value theory. First, three-dimensional extreme flight parameters required for assessing the risk are extracted using Monte Carlo simulation. The one-dimensional extreme parameters are verified to have the same distribution type of thick tail as the test data. Second, the four adaptive weight parameters copula is proposed for modeling the distributions of three-dimensional extreme parameters. The result of the fitting test shows the four adaptive weight parameters copula has higher accuracy than the other copula. Third, the flight risk probability in every corresponding grid point is evaluated by taking the four adaptive weight parameters copula to model the extreme parameters in the wake field. At last, the visual two-dimensional and three-dimensional distribution maps of flight risk probability are built, and the topology characteristics of risk distributions at different stages are analyzed. The maximum flight risk probability during wake encountering is about 13.5%. The work is an effective complement to the aircraft system safety assessment method. It also has some reference values for research on wake navigation control, risk aversion, airport safety interval improvement, environment risks visualization, and so on.