Budyko-based past and future disaggregation of climate and catchment effects on streamflow changes

Abstract

Budyko-based approaches are widely used to separate climate and catchment effects on streamflow changes. Considering the potential changes in streamflow, such separation is essential for future water resources management. In this study, we propose a method that allows for continuous disaggregation of climate and catchment impacts from the past to the future. We utilize a Generalized Linear Model to represent catchment parameters based on climate and catchment features. Subsequently, we determine the future positions of the catchment in the Budyko-state space. This framework is applied to four Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) catchments with varying aridity indices in the USA. The results indicate that, in the recent historical period (1971-2011), climate change has contributed to increased streamflow in three catchments compared to the baseline (1948-1970) period. However, future projections indicate a mixed pattern of contributions in two of these catchments due to increased potential evapotranspiration, resulting in decreased streamflow.