Abstract
A system analysis of the core threats to the budgetary security of the state shows that the current performance of the budgetary system in Ukraine was formed under the pressure of destructive external and internal risks aggravating the budgetary security problem. The article’s objective is to deepen theoretical and methodological foundations for the assessment of core threats to the budgetary security of the state. 
 It is demonstrated that the occurrence of external and internal threats to the budgetary security is characterized by the following tendencies: high level of GDP redistribution through the budgetary system; the growing figures of the total public debt, the government guaranteed debt and the payments to service and repayment of the public debt in Ukraine; the persisting high deficit of the public budget; high level of centralization of the budgetary funds. 
 It is substantiated that the execution of budget revenues involves two main dimensions of risk activities, which are the threats related with the proceeding of taxes and other categories of obligatory payments to the budget, and the administrative threats stemming from the existing system of tax administering. The impact of the first group of threats can be minimized by building up a rational budgetary system with the optimal level of fiscal burden. Minimization of the impact from the second group of threats will enable for the effective work of government bodies charged with administering and control. 
 The factors that cause risks and threats of budget losses resulting from failures in the budget revenues administration system are determined: risks which occurrence will result in the budget revenues never reaching the expected levels due to the inefficiency of forecasting and planning of budget revenues and failures in the routine operation process, first and foremost when mobilizing payments to the budget; risks of the excessive costs with the occurrence of which the costs for guaranteeing the projected figures of budget revenues by revenue category will exceed the economically viable ones; risks of the violation of the law, and risks of budget revenues administering per se.
Highlights
The factors that cause risks and threats of budget losses resulting from failures in the budget revenues administration system are determined: risks which occurrence will result in the budget revenues never reaching the expected levels due to the inefficiency of forecasting and planning of budget revenues and failures in the routine operation process, first and foremost when mobilizing payments to the budget; risks of the excessive costs with the occurrence of which the costs for guaranteeing the projected figures of budget revenues by revenue category will exceed the economically viable ones; risks of the violation of the law, and risks of budget revenues administering per se
The importance of problems related to fiscal security, which is a prerequisite for ensuring positive changes in the national economy, and the peculiarities of the influence of budget elements on the increase of the effectiveness of the mechanisms of economic security of the state, determines the relevance of the research topic
Despite the attention of scientists to the problems of the state budget and economic security of the state, many outstanding issues related to the definition of budgetary risks and minimization of their impact on fiscal security remain, which will reinforce the need for further research in this area
Summary
A system analysis of the core threats to the budgetary security of the state shows that the current performance of the budgetary system in Ukraine was formed under the pressure of destructive external and internal risks aggravating the budgetary security problem. Despite the attention of scientists to the problems of the state budget and economic security of the state, many outstanding issues related to the definition of budgetary risks and minimization of their impact on fiscal security remain, which will reinforce the need for further research in this area. The study of the assessment of main threats to ensure the state budget security was carried out during the period from 2000 to 2016, forecast data for some indicators up to 2020 was calculated. Positive dynamics of social and economic processes and the ability to reduce the negative impact of numerous risks and threats to the financial security of the state, which are exacerbated during the crisis, and during the period of economic reform, should provide budgetary tools. We forecast the trend of the dynamics of Ukraine’s public debt relative to GDP (see Fig. 4, calculated by the authors on the basis of the data of [6])
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