Abstract
ABSTRACT. Widespread decline of Neotropical migrant songbirds requires better understanding of the mechanisms driving juvenile mortality. We used mark—resight encounter histories of 3,990 banded fledglings (1998–2002) to test whether late breeding or large brood size negatively affected apparent annual and migration—wintering survival probability of juvenile Purple Martins (Progne subis). We estimated apparent annual juvenile survival (φa, fledging to 1 year old) by resighting individuals as adults at regional breeding colonies and at a premigratory roost. We tested for carryover effects of fledge week and brood size on migration—wintering survival (φm, premigratory roost to 1 year old) using two encounter occasions per season (premigratory roost, breeding colony) to partition annual survival into premigration versus migration—wintering survival. Annual survival (± SE) was 0.27 ± 0.027 and the best model (model weight = 0.93) included week of fledging and brood size, with survival probability decreasing w...
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