Abstract

BackgroundModelling disease outbreaks often involves integrating the wealth of data that are gathered during modern outbreaks into complex mathematical or computational models of transmission. Incorporating these data into simple compartmental epidemiological models is often challenging, requiring the use of more complex but also more efficient computational models. In this paper we introduce a new framework that allows for a more systematic and user-friendly way of building and running epidemiological models that efficiently handles disease data and reduces much of the boilerplate code that usually associated to these models. We introduce the framework by developing an SIR model on a simple network as an example.ResultsWe develop Broadwick, a modular, object-oriented epidemiological framework that efficiently handles large epidemiological datasets and provides packages for stochastic simulations, parameter inference using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Each algorithm used is fully customisable with sensible defaults that are easily overridden by custom algorithms as required.ConclusionBroadwick is an epidemiological modelling framework developed to increase the productivity of researchers by providing a common framework with which to develop and share complex models. It will appeal to research team leaders as it allows for models to be created prior to a disease outbreak and has the ability to handle large datasets commonly found in epidemiological modelling.

Highlights

  • Modelling disease outbreaks often involves integrating the wealth of data that are gathered during modern outbreaks into complex mathematical or computational models of transmission

  • Mathematical modelling of epidemics has been carried out since the eighteenth century when Daniel Bernoulii used a model to show that life expectancy would be increased when a population was inoculated against smallpox [1]

  • It consists of several third-party Java libraries and custom packages and removes the boilerplate code and complex data handling tasks so that researchers creating complex models can be more productive in their development

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Summary

Results

Broadwick was used to develop a generic compartmental model of disease spread through a network of animal holdings in Scotland (Soho), incorporating movements of individual cattle through the network. Understand, through the use of the cattle movement network, how the disease transmission patterns change from a slow spreading to a fast spreading disease with different locations for the initial outbreak sources. It uses an SIR epidemiological model where it considers three compartments for the number of susceptible (S), infectious (I) and recovered (R) individuals. It uses movement data from the Cattle Tracing System database for Scotland (provided by RADAR [22]), which consists of 1.38 million animals at the beginning of 2005 and each simulation incorporates more than 2000 cattle movements per day. More details about the Soho model can be found in (Salvador et al In Prep.)

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