Broadband Ground Motion Reconstruction for the Kanto Basin during the 1923 Kanto Earthquake

Abstract

Ground motions of the 1923 Kanto Earthquake inside the Kanto Basin are numerically simulated in a wide frequency range (0–10 Hz) based on new knowledge of the earthquake’s source processes, the sedimentary structure of the basin, and techniques for generating broadband source models of great earthquakes. The Kanto Earthquake remains one of the most important exemplars for ground motion prediction in Japan due to its size, faulting geometry, and location beneath the densely populated Kanto sedimentary basin. We reconstruct a broadband source model of the 1923 Kanto Earthquake from inversion results by introducing small-scale heterogeneities. The corresponding ground motions are simulated using a hybrid technique comprising the following four calculations: (1) low-frequency ground motion of the engineering basement, modeled using a finite difference method; (2) high-frequency ground motion of the engineering basement, modeled using a stochastic Green’s function method; (3) total ground motion of the engineering basement (i.e. 1 + 2); and (4) ground motion at the surface in response to the total basement ground motion. We employ a recently developed three-dimensional (3D) velocity structure model of the Kanto Basin that incorporates prospecting data, microtremor observations and measurements derived from strong ground motion records. Our calculations reveal peak ground velocities (PGV) exceeding 50 cm/s in the area above the fault plane: to the south, where the fault plane is shallowest, PGV reaches 150–200 cm/s at the engineering basement and 200–250 cm/s at the surface. Intensity 7, the maximum value in the Japan Meteorological Agency’s intensity scale, is calculated to have occurred widely in Sagami Bay, which corresponds well with observed house-collapse rates due to the 1923 event. The modeling reveals a pronounced forward directivity effect for the area lying above the southern, shallow part of the fault plane. The high PGV and intensity seen above the southeastern corner of the fault plane and further east are largely due to this effect. Waveforms above the fault plane contain both short- and long-period components, but the short-period components are not observed further afield. Away from the fault, long-period waves (>2 s) dominate the ground motion, and in areas where the base of the third layer is relatively deep, the predominant period is >5 s. Levels of long-period ground motion in the southern part of the study area, around Sagami Bay and the southern parts of Boso Peninsula and Tokyo Bay, exceed that recorded at Tomakomai during the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, when large oil storage tanks collapsed in response to sloshing generated by strong long-period motions.