Broadband demand and the role of new technologies

Abstract

Huge investments have been used to roll out broadband networks during the recent years. Long-term broadband demand forecasts have been and are crucial for investments decisions, rollouts and dimensioning of the networks. The main broadband access technologies have been DSL and Cable modem (Hybrid Fiber Coax). Also other technologies like fiber (FTTx) and fixed radio access are entering the market. Especially in Japan, Hong Kong and Korea, the growth of FTTx has been significant during the last years. However, the fiber access evolution in Western Europe has been quite modest. To cover the residual broadband market, technologies like WiMAX and mobile broadband are needed. The forecasting models are based on four parameters Logistic models and substitution effects between demands for different broadband technologies. For mobile broadband limited demand data, so far, are available. In addition specific attention is put on FTTx which is the long-term ultimate broadband solution. The long-term FTTx forecasts for Western Europe are dependent of a set of assumptions like time delay, regulatory aspects, degree of densely populated areas etc. The access forecasts for Western Europe show that the dominating technology, DSL, soon start to loose market share.