Abstract

Accurate, precise, and timely estimation of crop yield is key to a grower’s ability to proactively manage crop growth and predict harvest logistics. Such yield predictions typically are based on multi-parametric models and in-situ sampling. Here we investigate the extension of a greenhouse study, to low-altitude unmanned aerial systems (UAS). Our principal objective was to investigate snap bean crop (Phaseolus vulgaris) yield using imaging spectroscopy (hyperspectral imaging) in the visible to near-infrared (VNIR; 400–1000 nm) region via UAS. We aimed to solve the problem of crop yield modelling by identifying spectral features explaining yield and evaluating the best time period for accurate yield prediction, early in time. We introduced a Python library, named Jostar, for spectral feature selection. Embedded in Jostar, we proposed a new ranking method for selected features that reaches an agreement between multiple optimization models. Moreover, we implemented a well-known denoising algorithm for the spectral data used in this study. This study benefited from two years of remotely sensed data, captured at multiple instances over the summers of 2019 and 2020, with 24 plots and 18 plots, respectively. Two harvest stage models, early and late harvest, were assessed at two different locations in upstate New York, USA. Six varieties of snap bean were quantified using two components of yield, pod weight and seed length. We used two different vegetation detection algorithms. the Red-Edge Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (RENDVI) and Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM), to subset the fields into vegetation vs. non-vegetation pixels. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) was used as the regression model. Among nine different optimization models embedded in Jostar, we selected the Genetic Algorithm (GA), Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), Simulated Annealing (SA), and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and their resulting joint ranking. The findings show that pod weight can be explained with a high coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.78–0.93) and low root-mean-square error (RMSE = 940–1369 kg/ha) for two years of data. Seed length yield assessment resulted in higher accuracies (R2 = 0.83–0.98) and lower errors (RMSE = 4.245–6.018 mm). Among optimization models used, ACO and SA outperformed others and the SAM vegetation detection approach showed improved results when compared to the RENDVI approach when dense canopies were being examined. Wavelengths at 450, 500, 520, 650, 700, and 760 nm, were identified in almost all data sets and harvest stage models used. The period between 44–55 days after planting (DAP) the optimal time period for yield assessment. Future work should involve transferring the learned concepts to a multispectral system, for eventual operational use; further attention should also be paid to seed length as a ground truth data collection technique, since this yield indicator is far more rapid and straightforward.

Highlights

  • Agriculture and related industries contributed more than $1 trillion to the UnitedStates’ gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 [1]

  • The objectives of the presented research were to (i) quantify yield prediction of snap bean prior to harvest, with the use of descriptive models, via hyperspectral data, (ii) identify distinguishing spectral features that best predict pod weight and seed length prior to harvest, and (iii) identify the growth/time period that corresponds to the highest predictive accuracies

  • We first implemented an established hyperspectral noise removal approach to mitigate the impact of noise on the analysis-this approach increased the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) by 25%

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Summary

Introduction

Agriculture and related industries contributed more than $1 trillion to the UnitedStates’ gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 [1]. The agricultural industry is a sector vulnerable to climate change, market factors, and within-season weather variability Inventory management in this sector, generally referred to as yield evaluation, is different from other sectors, since crops require time for growth, and estimating “how much” and “how many” are dependent on the physiology of living organisms. If the actual final yield is less than the estimated yield, the business’s net profit is damaged because the unexpected shortage of yield means they cannot sell as much as they projected. In both scenarios, buyers and customers could become reluctant to continue doing business with the growers because they are not receiving what they were promised. Accurate knowledge of the final yield is important to both growers and the market to manage price

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