Broad-scale modelling of coastal wetlands: what is required?

Abstract

A Wetland Change Model has been developed to identify the vulnerability of coastal wetlands at broad spatial (regional to global (mean spatial resolution of 85 km)) and temporal scales (modelling period of 100 years). The model provides a dynamic and integrated assessment of wetland loss, and a means of estimating the transitions between different vegetated wetland types and open water under a range of scenarios of sea-level rise and changes in accommodation space from human intervention. This paper is an overview of key issues raised in the process of quantifying broad-scale vulnerabilities of coastal wetlands to forcing from sea-level rise discussing controlling factors of tidal range, sediment availability and accommodation space, identification of response lags and defining the threshold for wetland loss and transition.