Abstract
Predicting the outcome or success of any public policy is notoriously difficult. Professionals responsible for the development, implementation and evaluation of education policy are faced with the thorny problem of identifying the impact of different education policies upon educational practice. Problems in determining the impact of a policy are compounded by the ways in which the same policy can be implemented in surprisingly different ways in different contexts at the local level. This leads to what Bardach (1977) descibes as an ‘implementation deficit’ where well-intentioned policy reforms fail to be realized in practice. In addition, competing claims made for gains in achievement and educational improvement based on the measurement of the outcomes of an educational policy, can be relatively easy to fabricate in situations where it is not difficult for stakeholders on all sides to ‘game’ a system based upon centrally imposed, crude targets and blunt measures of ‘outcomes’.
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