Bringing Democracy to a Country Near You

Abstract

Determinants of Democratization: Explaining Regime Change in the World, 1972–2006. By Jan Teorell. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010. 220 pp., $29.99 paperback (ISBN 978-0-521-13968-7). Here is a book that speaks directly to the literatures on what causes transitions toward and away from democracy. Covering 3,795 annual observations, this study by Jan Teorell exploits panel regression analysis on an impressive data set of “third wave” democratizations (1972–2006) to test prominent theories in the democratization literature. Methodologically, it combines an inductive logic with deductive approaches based on statistics and case studies. In terms of substantive findings, the major empirical determinants of democratization unearthed in the book can be divided into long-term, medium-term, and short-term factors. Over the long term, symptoms of socioeconomic modernization, especially economic prosperity and media proliferation (measured by radios, televisions, and newspapers per population), were conducive to democracy but mainly by preventing de-democratization. Statistically significant obstacles to democracy included trade dependency, Arab population, natural resource wealth, and (large) country size. The most important medium-term factor was the type of authoritarian regime in place. More prone to democratization were military dictatorships and “multi-party autocracies,” elsewhere known as “competitive authoritarian” regimes (Levitsy and Way 2010). Less likely to democratize were single-party regimes and monarchies. International factors also …