Bringing Closure to the Plotting Position Controversy

Abstract

In this article, it is explicitly demonstrated that the probability of non exceedance of the mth value in n order ranked events equals m/(n + 1). Consequently, the plotting position in the extreme value analysis should be considered not as an estimate, but to be equal to m/(n + 1), regardless of the parent distribution and the application. The many other suggested plotting formulas and numerical methods to determine them should thus be abandoned. The article is intended to mark the end of the century-long controversial discussion on the plotting positions.