Abstract
The observation of strong latitudinal clines in the date of bud burst of tree species indicate that populations of these species are genetically adapted to local environmental conditions. Existing phenological models rarely address this clinal variation, so that adaptive responses of tree populations to changes in environmental conditions are not taken into account, e.g., in models on species distributions that use phenological sub-models. This omission of simulating adaptive response in tree models may over- or underestimate the effects of climate change on tree species distributions, as well as the impacts of climate change on tree growth and productivity. Here, we present an approach to model the adaptive response of traits to environmental change based on an integrated process-based eco-physiological and quantitative genetic model of adaptive traits. Thus, the parameter values of phenological traits are expressed in genetic terms (allele effects and—frequencies, number of loci) for individual trees. These individual trees thereby differ in their ability to acquire resources, grow and reproduce as described by the process-based model, leading to differential survival. Differential survival is thus the consequence of both differences in parameters values and their genetic composition. By simulating recombination and dispersal of pollen, the genetic composition of the offspring will differ from that of their parents. Over time, the distribution of both trait values and the frequency of the underlying alleles in the population change as a consequence of changes in environmental drivers leading to adaptation of trees to local environmental conditions. This approach is applied to an individual-tree growth model that includes a phenological model on the annual cycle of trees whose parameters are allowed to adapt. An example of the adaptive response of the onset of the growing season across Europe is presented.
Highlights
Genetic diversity is the ultimate source based on which species adapt to climate change (Geburek and Turok, 2005)
This could indicate that the numerical method to estimate the model parameters can be improved by the genetic system applied in the ForGEM model
It is unlikely that genetic processes determine the rate of change of boundaries between major vegetation zones under the influence of climate change, it is affected by adaptive capacity of the species
Summary
Genetic diversity is the ultimate source based on which species adapt to climate change (Geburek and Turok, 2005). Transplantation trials of tree species throughout Europe have shown that provenances, transferred within the geographic range of the species, differ in degree and even in sign of their response to changes in precipitation and temperature (Mátyás, 1996; Rehfeldt et al, 2002; Alberto et al, 2013) This genetic diversity within a species, as a result of adaptation to local environmental conditions, is important at the limits of species distributions (Hampe and Petit, 2005). As a consequence of adaptation, some alleles will be lost from the population, either because these allelic effects are unfavorable under the new conditions or because of genetic drift This loss in genetic diversity results in a reduced adaptive capacity to future environmental changes. Pure beech stands at different locations in Europe (Figure 7, Table 2) were initialized with the same genetic composition (distribution of allelic effects over 10 di-allelic loci) as the Dutch population. The age of the stand is calculated as the average age of all trees that have reached at least 50% of the maximum height
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