Bridging satellite missions: deep transfer learning for enhanced tropical cyclone intensity estimation

Abstract

ABSTRACT Geostationary satellites are valuable tools for monitoring the entire lifetime of tropical cyclones (TCs). Although the most widely used method for TC intensity estimation is manual, several automatic methods, particularly artificial intelligence (AI)-based algorithms, have been proposed and have achieved significant performance. However, AI-based techniques often require large amounts of input data, making it challenging to adopt newly introduced data such as those from recently launched satellites. This study proposed a transfer-learning-based TC intensity estimation method to combine different source data. The pre-trained model was built using the Swin Transformer (Swin-T) model, utilizing data from the Communication Ocean and Meteorological Satellite Meteorological Imager sensor, which has been in operation for an extensive period (2011–2021) and provides a large dataset. Subsequently, a transfer learning model was developed by fine-tuning the pre-trained model using the GEO-KOMPSAT-2A Advanced Meteorological Imager, which has been operational since 2019. The transfer learning approach was tested in three different ways depending on the fine-tuning ratio, with the optimal performance achieved when all layers were fine-tuned. The pre-trained model employed TC observations from 2011 to 2017 for training and 2018 for testing, whereas the transfer learning model utilized data from 2019 and 2020 for training and 2021 for testing to evaluate the model performance. The best pre-trained and transfer learning models achieved mean absolute error of 6.46 kts and 6.48 kts, respectively. Our proposed model showed a 7–52% improvement compared to the control models without transfer learning. This implies that the transfer learning approach for TC intensity estimation using different satellite observations is significant. Moreover, by employing a deep learning model visualization approach known as Eigen-class activation map, the spatial characteristics of the developed model were validated according to the intensity levels. This analysis revealed features corresponding to the Dvorak technique, demonstrating the interpretability of the Swin-T-based TC intensity estimation algorithm. This study successfully demonstrated the effectiveness of transfer learning in developing a deep learning-based TC intensity estimation model for newly acquired data.