Bridging Glaciological and Hydrological Trends in the Pamir Mountains, Central Asia

Malte Knoche,Martin Lindner,Ralf Merz,Stephan Weise

doi:10.3390/w9060422

Malte Knoche, Martin Lindner + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/w9060422

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Abstract

With respect to meteorological changes and glacier evolution, the southern Pamir Mountains are a transition zone between the Pamirs, Hindu Kush and Karakoram, which are water towers of Central Asia. In this study, we compare runoff and climate trends in multiple time periods with glacial changes reported in the literature. Recent glacier evolution in the Southern Pamirs and its contribution to river runoff are studied in detail. Uncertainties of estimating glacier retreat contribution to runoff are addressed. Runoff trends in the Pamir-Hindu Kush-Karakoram region appear to be a strong proxy for glacier evolution because they exhibit the same spatial pattern as glacial change. There is an anomaly in the North-West Pamirs and Northern Karakoram, showing decreasing runoff trends. In the opposite way, there is a glacier and hydrological change experienced in the Southern Pamirs and Hindu Kush. The prevailing hypothesis for the Karakoram Anomaly, decreasing summer temperatures along with increasing precipitation rates, seems to be valid for the North-Western Pamirs, as well. In the Southern Pamirs, temperature trends have been rising since 1950. Here, the unique water cycle of exclusively winter precipitation does not protect glaciers from accelerated retreat. Snow cover is preset to melt within the seasonal water cycle, due to much lower precipitation amounts falling on glaciers. Therefore, a probable increase in westerly precipitation in both regions causes glacier mass gain in the Northern Pamirs and rising river flows in the Southern Pamirs.

Highlights

Irrigation agriculture and hydro-electricity are the fundament of Central Asia’s economies [1,2]which makes approximately 60 million people dependent on meltwater from the Pamirs: Fedchenko Glacier (Pamir) [3].the investigation of present and future water resources is of fundamental importance for local communities and stakeholders.Glacier retreat is documented for the Himalaya Range [4,5], for the Hindu Kush Range [6], for theTien Shan Range [7,8], as well as for the Altai Range [9]
Snow cover is preset to melt within the seasonal water cycle, due to much lower precipitation amounts falling on glaciers
A probable increase in westerly precipitation in both regions causes glacier mass gain in the Northern Pamirs and rising river flows in the Southern Pamirs

Summary

Introduction

Irrigation agriculture and hydro-electricity are the fundament of Central Asia’s economies [1,2]which makes approximately 60 million people dependent on meltwater from the Pamirs [3].the investigation of present and future (glacier) water resources is of fundamental importance for local communities and stakeholders.Glacier retreat is documented for the Himalaya Range [4,5], for the Hindu Kush Range [6], for theTien Shan Range [7,8], as well as for the Altai Range [9]. Glacier retreat is documented for the Himalaya Range [4,5], for the Hindu Kush Range [6], for the. Positive or at least stable glacier mass balances were documented for the Karakoram Range [10,11]. This so-called “Karakoram Anomaly” [12]. Was extended to the Pamirs, named the “Pamir-Karakoram Anomaly” by Gardelle et al [13], who observed “slight mass gain or balanced mass budgets of glaciers” in the North-Western Pamirs (Figure 1), and extrapolated their findings to the entire Pamirs. Holzer et al [15] observed a positive mass balance for the Muztag Ata Glacier in the Chinese Pamirs since 1999 (Table 1). The Pamirs appear to be a region of growing glaciers

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