BRICS or G7? Current and future assessment of energy and environment performance using multi-criteria and time series analyzes

Abstract

Studying the trends of countries in the past has a significant impact on developing their future roadmaps and efficient policies in energy sector. This paper examines the performance of BRICS and G7 countries in the field of energy and environment. In this regard, 3 indicators related to the field of energy, i.e., energy intensity, energy import and use of renewable resources, and 3 indicators related to the environment, i.e., greenhouse gas emissions, CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions intensity were selected. Using an optimization model based on Holt-Winters, the values of these indicators were obtained for the studied countries in the 2040 horizon. Finally, by using the KEMIRA method, the performance of the countries in the base and forecast year was evaluated. The findings reveal that in the projected year, BRICS countries excelled with a higher emphasis on renewable energy for ranking, whereas developed G7 economies showed better performance in the base year with a greater contribution of energy intensity in ordering. Recommendations for mature economies include prioritizing environmental taxes, investing in clean technologies, embracing circular economy, and securing critical mineral supply chains. For BRICS nations, a balanced energy transition is advised, leveraging natural gas as a transitional fuel, financing renewables, and advancing carbon capture, electric vehicles, and hydrogen technologies. Although various dynamic indicators influence the countries' policy-making process and performance, this research provides a general perspective of the energy and environmental performance of key players in the global economy.