Brexit: what impact on armaments cooperation?

Abstract

ABSTRACTAlthough the long-term implications of Brexit are difficult to predict, it is possible to envision potential and likely scenarios in various areas. This article focuses specifically on Brexit’s effects on European armaments cooperation. With the intention to stimulate academic and political debate, this analysis takes an alternative path from the widespread pessimistic perspectives about post-Brexit EU-UK relations. In contrast, it offers a scenario in which European armaments cooperation could, surprisingly, benefit from the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. Specifically, Brexit could be a win-win situation for two main reasons. First, Brexit need not damage EU-UK defence-industrial relations. Second, Brexit will force EU countries to take important steps towards greater armaments cooperation. These initiatives are likely to generate an increase in EU defence spending and may also induce a spill over effect in the UK.