Brexit, the Border, and Political Conflict Narratives in Northern Ireland

Abstract

What effect, if any, will Brexit have on the Northern Irish peace process? We consider here two ways in which Brexit may threaten the peace process. First, it undermines at least one strand of the 1998 Good Friday/Belfast Agreement. By necessitating a border somewhere between the United Kingdom and Ireland, Brexit weakens either north-south or east-west relations. Second, it incentivises a resurgence in parties' conflict narratives. Because border placement ultimately indicates whether the Northern Irish territory moves towards the UK or Ireland, Brexit represents a political shock and creates an opportunity to re-open past negotiations, while parties return to and resurrect their (more latent) conflict narratives. Our research shows evidence of these trends and we give particular attention to dissident republican groups. These groups use Brexit to: stress the failure of mainstream parties' political strategies; re-open the constitutional question; challenge the EU's economic policy; and reinforce their credentials as ‘true’ republicans and revolutionaries. Such trends need not imply that large-scale violence awaits; rather, they suggest a risk that the Good Friday Agreement may partially unravel and with it, the peace process itself.