Brexit, Indyref2 and the 2019 General Election in Scotland

Abstract

While “ getting Brexit done” featured at the heart of the UK Conservative 2019 general election campaign, it was clear that a similar strategy was never going to function in Scotland where 62% voted Remain in 2016. Neither could the Conservatives afford to ignore Scotland as they knew too well that they had only managed to snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat in the 2017 general election thanks to the crucial addition of thirteen Scottish Conservative seats. The upsurge in Conservative votes in Scotland coincided with a strong unionist message which had proved fruitful in the 2017 general election despite a political context dominated by Brexit. Could the Scottish Conservatives repeat their success of 2017 by focusing on the Union and betting that Scotland’s constitutional debate would once again trump the issue of Brexit? This paper will seek to compare the last two general election campaigns in Scotland in order to determine to what extent Brexit determined the results of the 2019 general election.