BREXIT IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE ENLARGMEMENT OF THE WESTERN BALKANS

Gazmend Qorraj

doi:10.5755/j01.eis.0.11.18125

Abstract

Most of the analyses are performed in order to find the impact of EU membership on trade relations and economic impact for the member states. In contrary the BREXIT is the first case to discus and predict the exit process. In this paper we will try to analyse the BREXIT with regard to enlargement impact for the Western Balkans. The main question to be addressed is: the lack of political support of Britain for the EU enlargement of the Western Balkans, second issue is trade and economic issues; third issue is probability of decrease of EU programmes for Western Balkans due to withdraw of Britain and their contribution for the EU budget. Another important issue to be tackled is the Negotiation Process. Assuming that Britain cannot negotiate optimally with EU, therefore this option could impose long term negotiations therefore the main focus of the European Union will be directed to the BREXIT process compare to Western Balkans enlargement. In order to have the empirical results about the expectations of respondents about the future prospects of the European Union in the Western Balkans, we employed a survey involving 400 respondents mainly academics working on EU affairs and other stakeholders. Based on the statistical indicators, as well as the survey results we can conclude that the people in the Western Balkans still believe in the Europen Project despite the BREXIT and other challenges.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.eis.0.11.18125

Highlights

Based on the statistical indicators as well as the survey results, we can conclude that the respondents in the Western Balkans are still optimistic about the Europen Integration process despite the Brexit and other EU challenges
The fact that, on the 23rd of June 2016, the majority voted UK to exit the European Union has caused great uncertainty throughout Europe, the UK’s membership of the EU was somewhat special as the UK has an opt-out from the single currency, it has a rebate from the EU budget, and it was not part of the Schengen zone (Andor, 2016)
The main objective of this paper is to investigate and determine whether Brexit is a threat to the enlargement process of the EU in general, and whether the countries of the Western Balkans are still part of the current plan of the European Union? The story in this paper is build in the main assumptions, such as: first, the Brexit will significiantly impact the speed of the EU enlargement process; and second, the Brexit will have stronger political negative effect on Western Balkans compared to economic effects, due to the continuation of strong political influence of the Britain in the region

Summary

Introduction

As the “Brexit” does not mean just exit of Great Britain from the EU, and shifting the main focus of the EU exclusively to this process, throwing into oblivion its enlargement This represents a major problem for the Western Balkan countries, even though after the UK referendum the EU high representatives reassured Western Balkans leaders that the enlargement process will continue. Despite this EU commitment, the dilemma exists whether the Brexit process will cause political challenges, impact on reforms and future growth (Bakker, 2016)

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