Brexit exposed: trust, influence, and the struggle for British self-esteem

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper examines the Brexit referendum vote by focusing on how national self-esteem connects with citizen desires to maintain membership in the European Union. Specifically, the analysis focuses on how the perception of the UK and Germany’s roles in the EU led to the leave vote. Given the high level of national pride among the British, Brexiters consider membership in a highly integrated organization as a blow to national self-esteem if they believe the UK has low levels of influence. Evidence demonstrates that a low perceived influence of the UK in the EU and the mistrust of the EU’s regional leader (Germany) can strongly predict the leave vote. However, even among strong nationalists, perceived high UK influence reduces the likelihood of a Brexit vote. Survey data of British voters collected two months prior to the referendum support the hypotheses.