Brexit, and the Crisis of the Transatlantic Relationship

Abstract

This working paper examines what might loosely be termed a ‘twenty years crisis’ in the history of the transatlantic relationship since the turn of the new century. Like the death of Mark Twain the demise of the relationship has been announced many times before, but like Twain himself has managed to carry on, in large part because the interests of both Europe and the US have coincided. In what follows the author takes the continuation of the relationship as a given. What he then attempts to do is explain the many challenges it has faced and why Brexit and Trump taken together constitute the greatest combined challenge it has confronted thus far. President Biden has vowed to repair the damage done. But as the paper shows he faces an uphill struggle. Divorce is most unlikely. Yet until all the actors – the EU, the UK and the US – can come up with a new grand bargain, the way ahead looks fraught.