Abstract
AbstractHas the UK referendum to leave the EU (Brexit) affected territorial preferences within the UK? We draw on comparative theories of such preferences to address this question, as Brexit can be seen as a shock to a political unit. We test hypotheses in two key regions, Scotland and Northern Ireland, with original surveys fielded at a unique time (September 2019). We randomize making salient different Brexit scenarios and measure support for Scottish independence and unification with Ireland within each region. We find in Scotland the prospect of leaving the EU increases support for independence. This effect is pronounced among those who support the UK remaining in the EU. In Northern Ireland, religious background correlates highly with territorial views, and we find little evidence of Brexit or border-scenario effects. Our results contribute to the literature on decentralization processes and the EU, and provide evidence of when negative shocks affect such preferences.
Highlights
The 2016 referendum in which United Kingdom (UK) voters opted to leave the European Union, known as Brexit, has undoubtedly changed politics in the UK
The results are from events in the UK and Brexit might be viewed as a specific example of an external shock affecting regions, the findings contribute to the larger literature on the relationship between territorial cleavages within states and the EU, and provide unique evidence about the role of the external shocks, the EU, and regional territorial views
Brexit Scenarios and Territorial Preferences in Northern Ireland We turn to the experimental results for Northern Ireland, which compare support for unification with Ireland by Brexit condition
Summary
The 2016 referendum in which United Kingdom (UK) voters opted to leave the European Union, known as Brexit, has undoubtedly changed politics in the UK. There has been little theorizing and specific evidence regarding whether Brexit scenarios affect relevant preferences in the regions where such issues have been a political cleavage. The results contribute to understanding of how external shocks can raise the salience of territorial issues and affect regional preferences, as there has been an absence of designs that consider the specific role of external shocks on territorial preferences. This is one of the few studies that uses this type of design to isolate the salience of an external shock to a union, for this issue during a key time period. The article concludes and offers avenues for further research
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