Breeding strategies in a changing climate and implications for biodiversity

Abstract

Most global climate models predict a rapid increase in temperature over the next few decades as a result of elevated levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Although the resolution of the existing models is not sufficient to predict specific weather patterns for the Maritimes region, the predicted rate of change is such that forest tree populations will be unable to adapt fully to future conditions. If conventional rotation lengths are planned, presently adapted seedlings will be poorly adapted to the new conditions by the time of harvest. A three-pronged approach is proposed to mitigate the impact of climate change in the Maritimes: development of short rotation clonal forestry, testing and breeding for stability of genotypes over a range of climatic conditions, and collection, storage, and testing of native and non-native materials of potential value.