Abstract

A deterministic bio-economic model was developed to estimate economic weights for genetic improvement of lactation milk yield, fat yield, age at first calving, calving interval, mature weight and survival under low, medium and high production systems in the Tropics. Input parameters were obtained from dairy production systems in Kenya which has a tropical environment. The highest proportion of revenue is from the sale of milk followed by sale of heifers, cull cows and sale of male calves under all production systems. On the other hand, feed cost is the most important production cost followed by labour, marketing, reproduction and health costs, respectively. Economic values for the six traits were derived from a profit equation using revenue and production costs per cow per year. The economic values were then discounted using diffusion coefficients which account for differences between traits in the time when the improvement is expressed. Economic weights were robust to changes in input and output prices, changes in feeding strategies, and changes in milk and surplus heifer marketing strategies. Genetic standard deviations were multiplied by economic values to standardise the economic value of traits and to compare their potential for economic response. When expressed as proportion of their sum, these relative economic weights under the low, medium and high production systems for lactation milk yield were 51.36, 59.79 and 63.98%; for fat yield 4.50, 10.69 and 9.05%; for age at first calving 3.16, 2.66 and 0.55%; for calving interval 33.59, 19.88 and 20.05%; for mature weight 1.55, 1.34 and 1.19% and for survival rate 5.84, 5.64 and 5.18%, respectively. The predicted responses followed the same pattern as the relative economic weights. This shows that milk yield and calving interval were most important in all production systems but the value of response for traits differed between production systems with more emphasis on milk yield and less on calving interval in the high production systems. Moderate correlations were estimated between the breeding objective for the low, medium and high production systems. To maximise response in the overall breeding objective, different selection criteria are required for the three production systems.

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