Breast cancer mortality in Chinese women and men from 1990 to 2019: Analysis of trends in risk factors.

Abstract

This study aimed to examine the relative risk of risk factor in male and female breast cancer (BC) deaths in China and analyzed the changing trends in BC mortality rates from 1990 to 2019. Open data from the Global Burden of Disease database from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed to assess the number of BC deaths and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) in China. The age-period-cohort model was employed to study age effects, period effects, cohort effects, as well as local drift and net drift of the data, determining the impact of changing risk factors on crude mortality rates and ASMR of BC. In 2019, the number of BC deaths across all age groups in China increased by 130.38% compared to 1990, with an increase of 125.68% in females and 648.80% in males. The ASMR for BC and male BC increased in 2019, while female BC ASMR declined. Overall, alcohol consumption and smoking as risk factors contributed to increased mortality rates of BC with advancing age. Over the entire study period, the net drift of alcohol consumption in females for BC was 0.06% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.24% to 0.36%), while for smoking it was -0.64% (95% CI: -0.83% to -0.45%). For males, the net drift of alcohol consumption for BC was 6.75% (95% CI: 5.55% to 7.96%), and for smoking, it was 6.09% (95% CI: 2.66% to 9.64%). Hence, improving awareness of BC-related risk factors and implementing prevention strategies are necessary to alleviate future BC burdens.