Breaking the Curse of “the Last Generation”: Employment Structure and China’s Population Crisis

Abstract

It is widely acknowledged that the dangerously low birth rate threatens China’s future socio-economic stability. The existing literature typically regards China’s population crisis as a natural development trend, attributes it to family planning policies, or associates it with particular social, economic, and cultural conditions. Drawing from the social reproduction theory of feminist political economy, we develop a more encompassing analytical framework for China’s population crisis. We contend that the overarching context of China’s population crisis is the institutional transition from a balanced socialist social reproduction regime to an unsustainable developmentalist one. China’s employment structure is crucial to the structure of its social reproduction regime. Specifically, the formal economic sector facilitates a more accessible distribution of social reproduction cost for working-class families that maintains their willingness and ability to have children. Using provincial-level panel data from 1990 to 2021 and the General Method of Moments regression technique, we find positive, significant, and robust correlations between China’s formal sector employment and birth rate. These findings suggest that effective policies addressing China’s population crisis should focus on expanding the formal sector employment, expanding the social welfare system, and regulating the informal sectors.