Brazil\u2019s sugarcane embitters the EU-Mercosur trade talks

Marco Follador,George Philippidis,Amanda Ribeiro De Oliveira,Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho,Juliana Leroy Davis,Raoni Rajão

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-93349-8

Abstract

The Brazilian government’s decision to open the Amazon biome to sugarcane expansion reignited EU concerns regarding the sustainability of Brazil’s sugar sector, hindering the ratification of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement. Meanwhile, in the EU, certain conventional biofuels face stricter controls, whilst uncertainty surrounding the commercialisation of more sustainable advanced-biofuels renders bioethanol as a short- to medium-term fix. This paper examines Brazil’s land-use changes and associated greenhouse gas emissions arising from an EU driven ethanol import policy and projections for other 13 biocommodities. Results suggest that Brazil’s sugarcane could satisfy growing ethanol demand and comply with EU environmental criteria, since almost all sugarcane expansion is expected to occur on long-established pasturelands in the South and Midwest. However, expansion of sugarcane is also driven by competition for viable lands with other relevant commodities, mainly soy and beef. As a result, deforestation trends in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes linked to soy and beef production could jeopardize Brazil’s contribution to the Paris agreement with an additional 1 ± 0.3 billion CO2eq tonnes above its First NDC target by 2030. Trade talks with a narrow focus on a single commodity could thus risk unsustainable outcomes, calling for systemic sustainability benchmarks, should the deal be ratified.

Highlights

The Brazilian government’s decision to open the Amazon biome to sugarcane expansion reignited European Union (EU) concerns regarding the sustainability of Brazil’s sugar sector, hindering the ratification of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement
In 2019 Brazil unexpectedly revoked the Agro-Ecological Zoning (AEZ) decree for sugarcane that forbade its expansion into the Amazon and other sensitive b iomes[12], thereby reigniting EU concerns regarding the sustainability of Brazil’s sugarcane production
To shed light on this issue, here we examine the future sustainability of EU imports of Brazilian bioethanol by quantitatively assessing the impacts of increased EU demand for bioethanol in terms of its implications for sugarcane expansion and associated land-use change in Brazil

Summary

Introduction

The Brazilian government’s decision to open the Amazon biome to sugarcane expansion reignited EU concerns regarding the sustainability of Brazil’s sugar sector, hindering the ratification of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement. To ensure sufficient biomass availability to meet this goal, the EU will inevitably require reliable and sustained access to third country supplies, as a means to bypass the limits of domestic biomass production that must comply with its environmental and climate targets[2]. In this context, tropical agriculture could play an important role in promoting the EU’s energy transition away from fossil fuels and towards biofuels, given its ability to grow crops that are highly energy efficient. The controversial dismantling of Brazil’s environmental policies together with the revelation that a large share of EU imports of beef and soy from the country were produced on illegally deforested lands[13] has complicated the ratification process of the EU-Mercosur trade d eal[14]

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Conclusion