Abstract
SUMMARYBrazil's National Plan for Climate Change (PNMC [Plano Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima]) brought the good news of quantified ‘objectives’ for deforestation reduction in Brazilian Amazonia, a departure from past policy, under which the Brazilian government has steadfastly refused any quantitative goals deforestation reduction in the context of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, the ‘objectives’ given in the PNMC carry no consequences if they are not met, other than possible suspension of contributions to the new Amazon Fund. The PNMC offers little information on how deforestation would be reduced, which is critical to achieving the results it proposes. Effective control of deforestation is needed both to avoid direct loss of the forest and to leverage the international commitment needed to contain global warming within a reasonable limit, such as 2°C. This is approximately the limit for avoiding replacement of substantial areas of Amazonian forest by either savannah or degraded secondary scrub. Brazil needs to move quickly to take the lead in the effort to halt global warming because it is one of the countries with the most to lose from climate change, including risk to the country's Amazon forest.
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