Brazil’s Emergence in the United States’ ‘Backyard’: Domestic Leadership and Systemic Status

Abstract

This article studies Brazil’s emerging power status crisis due to policy shifts under President Jair Bolsonaro. In addition to studying the material bases, diplomatic relations and perceptions that shape emerging power status, this article also addresses how political elites shape such status. While the crisis of status is explained through domestic political and economic instabilities, this article points to the role of the United States in fomenting such instabilities. The US–Brazil bilateral relations between 2003 and 2022 are analysed through realist and power transition theory to outline the systemic dynamics of Great Power and Emerging Power interactions. Narratives of Brazil’s emergence were premised on steady economic growth, regional preponderance, and formulation of a globalist foreign policy under former President Lula. There were divergences of interests between Lula’s globalist foreign policy and the US interests in Latin America. Recent disclosures show that Lula was controversially arrested due to US interference in his trial in 2018 while he was favored to win the Presidential election. Bolsonaro secured the victory and initiated sharp policy shifts, aligning closely with the US. Bolsonaro’s policies consolidated an expansive American presence in South America, reducing Brazilian leadership roles and creating a crisis in status. This article contextualizes American interference in Brazil’s domestic politics and the erosion of status by examining the role played by individuals in impacting systemic status.