Abstract
The Brazil nut is one of the main non-timber forest products in Brazil, but its price fluctuations generate uncertainties and risks for both extractivists and investors. Econometric models or other simpler methods can estimate price changes and indicate the investment attractiveness of the Brazil nut. The objective of the present study was to analyze the risk-return relationship and the export price for both volatility of the Brazil nut over a 15 years period. The historical series of Brazil nut export prices, shelled and unshelled nuts, was evaluated from 2002 to 2016. The geometric growth rate and the variation coefficient indicate the return and risk respectively, associated with its price series. The price volatility of shelled and unshelled Brazil nuts was estimated with the standard deviation of the price series and with generalized models of ARCH (GARCH, EGARCH and TARCH). The shelled or unshelled Brazil nut coefficient increased over 15 years, with a low risk-return ratio. The shelled Brazil nut volatility was lower in the 2002 to 2006, 2007 to 2011 and 2012 to 2016 periods than for the unshelled nut when estimated by the standard deviation method than for the unshelled nut. The shelled Brazil nut price was higher from 2002 to 2016, with low volatility and persistent shocks. The estimate of the shelled and unshelled Brazil nut price volatility was better with the TARCH and the EGARCH models, respectively.
Highlights
The collection of economic products in the Amazonian forest allows direct and cheap access to non-timber forest products (NTFPs), including the products of extractivism activities such as fibers, fruits, nuts, oils and rubber (Goeschl & Igliori, 2006)
The Brazil nut is one of the most important NTFPs in the Amazonian region (Stoian & Henkemans, 2000; Scoles & Gribel, 2011), harvested mainly in native forests (Helbingen, 2001; Zuidema, 2003), because planted trees only start fruit production when they are over eight years old (Costa et al, 2009)
The future behavior of the export price variation of the Brazil nut and its risk-return relationship needs further studies to help producer investment decisions and public policy-making for this product. The objective of this present study was to estimate the risk-return relationship and the export price volatility of Brazil nuts over a fifteen-year period
Summary
The collection of economic products in the Amazonian forest allows direct and cheap access to non-timber forest products (NTFPs), including the products of extractivism activities such as fibers, fruits, nuts, oils and rubber (Goeschl & Igliori, 2006). The commercial extraction of Brazil nuts in the Amazon is a subsistence strategy to diversify the dependence on rubber production, mainly in the context of a worsening scenario for this commodity in the international market (Stoin, 2000,2005). The Brazil nut is one of the most important NTFPs in the Amazonian region (Stoian & Henkemans, 2000; Scoles & Gribel, 2011), harvested mainly in native forests (Helbingen, 2001; Zuidema, 2003), because planted trees only start fruit production when they are over eight years old (Costa et al, 2009). Bolivia (Bayna et al, 2014), USA (Collinson et al, 2000; Yang, 2009; Reis et al, 2014), China, Peru, the European Union (Bayna et al, 2014), Australia, Canada, Japan and Vietnam (Pacheco, 2009) were the largest buyers of Brazil nuts
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