Abstract

Estimates of absolute pest population density are critical to pest management programs but have been difficult to obtain from capture numbers in pheromone-baited monitoring traps. In this paper, we establish a novel predictive relationship for a probability (spTfer(r)) of catching a male located at a distance r from the trap with a plume reach D.

Highlights

  • European gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar dispar (L.), Lepidoptera: Erebidae) is one of the most devastating forest pests in the Eastern United States

  • Gypsy moth is primarily considered a forest pest; during outbreaks it can pose a threat to various fruit and nut crops, lead to reductions in residential property values as a result of defoliation, damage public greenspaces, and cause allergic reaction in humans [3,4,5]

  • Gypsy moth management efforts include outbreak suppression, slowing its spread in the transition zone, and eradication of populations that arrive outside of the invaded range. All of these management programs rely on traps baited with synthetic gypsy moth sex pheromone (+)-disparlure to detect gypsy moth populations, estimate population density, and evaluate success of applied treatments [6]

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Summary

Introduction

European gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar dispar (L.), Lepidoptera: Erebidae) is one of the most devastating forest pests in the Eastern United States. Gypsy moth is primarily considered a forest pest; during outbreaks it can pose a threat to various fruit and nut crops, lead to reductions in residential property values as a result of defoliation, damage public greenspaces, and cause allergic reaction in humans [3,4,5]. Gypsy moth management efforts include outbreak suppression, slowing its spread in the transition zone, and eradication of populations that arrive outside of the invaded range. All of these management programs rely on traps baited with synthetic gypsy moth sex pheromone (+)-disparlure to detect gypsy moth populations, estimate population density, and evaluate success of applied treatments [6]. Trapping counts are favored over other measures of gypsy moth density such as egg mass and pupal counts because they are by far the least costly to obtain and were shown to be well correlated with egg mass and pupal counts [7,8,9]

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