Abstract

This paper develops a simple heterogeneous agent model (HAM) of asset prices with bounded rationality and adaptive behaviour. The model features feedback loop that amplifies shocks and leads to large price fluctuations. Our model not only retains the nonlinear interaction between prices and population in HAMs but also allows for a quantitative comparison with the data. Estimating the model to the data shows that the feedback loop helps explain the large variations in expected returns, such as return predictability and excess volatility.

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