Bottom-up estimation of the scope of tasks to completely phase out fossil fuels in Finland

Abstract

Phasing out fossil fuel use in order to limit global warming is an urgent global task. In a new climate law, Finland has set itself the target of being carbon neutral by 2035. Various scenarios and models have been presented on future energy needs and technological methods of production. However, there is a lack of research covering all fossil fuel energy use (power, heating, transport) and estimations of full replacement tasks. In order to highlight the concrete steps needed, we use a bottom-up approach, calculating for 2019 (the latest year with no artificial signatures in the data) the contribution of coal, oil, natural gas and peat to the Finnish energy system. The replacement of fossil fuels via electrification would, at minimum, demand a doubling of power production, with the precise number depending on the technologies of replacement, most notably the use of hydrogen versus electric drive in various modes of transport. The scale of the task points, first, to the trade-off between biomass use in forest industry and in energy production, and, second, to the salience of reduced energy demand in helping the task of transition.