Boreal spring precipitation variability in the cold arid western Himalaya during the last millennium, regional linkages, and socio-economic implications

Abstract

Precipitation in the monsoon shadow zone of the western Himalayan region, largely under the influence of mid-latitude westerlies, is the dominant regional socioeconomic driver. Current knowledge of long-term regional precipitation variability is scarce due to spatially and temporally limited weather and high-resolution proxy climate records. We developed the first boreal spring precipitation reconstruction for the western Himalaya covering the last millennium (1030–2011 C.E.). The annually resolved reconstruction is based on a large tree-ring data set of Himalayan cedar (Cedrus deodara) and neoza pine (Pinus gerardiana) from 16 ecologically homogeneous moisture stressed settings in Kinnaur, western Indian Himalaya. The precipitation reconstruction revealed persistent long-term spring droughts from the 12th to early 16th century C.E. and pluvial from the late 16th century C.E. to recent decades. The late 15th and early 16th centuries (1490–1514 C.E.) displayed the driest episode, with precipitation being ∼15% lower than the long-term mean. The early 19th century (1820–1844 C.E.) was the wettest period of the past millennium, with mean precipitation ∼13% above the long-term mean. The reconstructed boreal spring precipitation from the western Himalaya revealed large-scale consistency with hydrological records from westerly dominated regions in Central Asia, indicating synoptic-scale changes in atmospheric circulation during the major part of the Medieval and Little Ice Age periods. Protracted droughts in Central Asia could have caused severe contraction of the regional economy, as indicated by striking coherence of reconstructed drought periods and historic social upheavals and invasions of India from Central and Western Asian invaders. Vulnerability to climatic extremes underpins the need to develop a better understanding of the temporal and spatial variability in regional hydroclimate in order to devise viable water resource management plans.