Border Walls and Crime: Evidence From the Secure Fence Act

Abstract

Despite a lack of rigorous empirical evidence, reduced crime is often touted as a potential benefit in the debate over increasing border infrastructure (i.e. border walls). This paper examines the effect of the Secure Fence Act of 2006, which led to unprecedented barrier construction along the US-Mexico border, on local crime using geospatial data on dates and locations of border wall construction. Synthetic control estimates across twelve border counties find no systematic evidence that border infrastructure reduced property or violent crime rates in the counties in which it was built. Further analysis using matched panel models indicates no effect on property crime rates and that observed declines in violent crime rates precede barrier construction, not the other way around. Taken together, this paper finds potential crime reductions are not a compelling argument towards the benefits of expanding border infrastructure.