Bootstrapping Wildfire Selectivity for the Forest Types of Canton Ticino (Switzerland)

Abstract

Abstract Disturbances spreading through the landscape, like wildfires, are essential processes in modeling landscape structure and dynamics. Like other disturbances, fire may spread from a local epicenter with a propagation rate enhanced or retarded by the spatial arrangement of fuel across the landscape. Therefore, fire ignition and spread are a direct consequence of the presence and arrangement of fire-prone habitats. Generalizing the concept of “habitat selection” to every spatially distributed ecological process, the resource selection functions used in zoology to summarize habitat use by wildlife can be also used to characterize the wildfire’s pattern across the landscape. The aim of this paper is thus to quantify the relationship between forest cover and burnt area in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) during 1980–2007 using a bootstrap test of significance: that is, to identify forest types that burn more (or less) than expected from a random null model based on the regional availability of the resource (forest type). The results show that fires behave selectively for most forest types; whereas chestnut stands and broad-leaved forests display overproportional burnt areas, coniferous forests typically burn less than expected by a random null model.