Abstract
In this paper we show how to quantify the uncertainty in the difference between the best estimate for the ultimate claim viewed at the beginning and at the end of one year. A second aspect in this paper is how bootstrapping techniques can be used to simulate these uncertainty for several correlated run-off-portfolios. We show method for achieving the whole (bootstrap) distribution. This distribution can be used for calculating several risk measures, such as Value-at-Risk or expected shortfall.
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