Bootstrap Aggregated Case-Based Reasoning Method for Conceptual Cost Estimation

Abstract

Conceptual cost estimation is an important step in project feasibility decisions when there is not enough information on detailed design and project requirements. Methods that enable quick and reasonably accurate conceptual cost estimates are crucial for achieving successful decisions in the early stages of construction projects. For this reason, numerous machine learning methods proposed in the literature that use different learning mechanisms. In recent years, the case-based reasoning (CBR) method has received particular attention in the literature for conceptual cost estimation of construction projects that use similarity-based learning principles. Despite the fact that CBR provides a powerful and practical alternative for conceptual cost estimation, one of the main criticisms about CBR is its low prediction performance when there is not a sufficient number of cases. This paper presents a bootstrap aggregated CBR method for achieving advancement in CBR research, particularly for conceptual cost estimation of construction projects when a limited number of training cases are available. The proposed learning method is designed so that CBR can learn from a diverse set of training data even when there are not a sufficient number of cases. The performance of the proposed bootstrap aggregated CBR method is evaluated using three data sets. The results revealed that the prediction performance of the new bootstrap aggregated CBR method is better than the prediction performance of the existing CBR method. Since the majority of conceptual cost estimates are made with a limited number of cases, the proposed method provides a contribution to CBR research and practice by improving the existing methods for conceptual cost estimating.