Boosting Model Interpretability for Transparent ML in TBM Tunneling

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Tunnel boring machines (TBMs) are essential for excavating metro tunnels, reducing disruptions to surrounding rock, and ensuring efficient progress. This study examines how machine learning (ML) models can predict key tunneling outcomes, focusing on making these predictions clearer. Specifically, the models aim to predict surface settlements (ground sinking) and the TBM’s penetration rate (PR) during the Athens Metro Line 2 extension to Hellinikon. For surface settlements, four artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed, achieving an accuracy of over 79%, on average. For the TBM’s PR, both an XGBoost Regressor (XGBR) and ANNs performed consistently well, offering reliable predictions. This study emphasizes model transparency mostly. Using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) library, it is possible to explain how models make decisions, highlighting key factors like geological conditions and TBM operating data. With SHAP’s Tree Explainer and Deep Explainer techniques, the study reveals which parameters matter most, making ML models less of a “black box” and more practical for real-world metro tunnel projects. By showing how decisions are made, these tools give decision-makers confidence to rely on ML in complex tunneling operations.