Boosting genome-wide association power and genomic prediction accuracy for date palm fruit traits with advanced statistics

Abstract

The date palm is economically vital in the Middle East and North Africa, providing essential fibres, vitamins, and carbohydrates. Understanding the genetic architecture of its traits remains complex due to the tree's perennial nature and long generation times. This study aims to address these complexities by employing advanced genome-wide association (GWAS) and genomic prediction models using previously published data involving fruit acid content, sugar content, dimension, and colour traits. The multivariate GWAS model identified seven QTL, including five novel associations, that shed light on the genetic control of these traits. Furthermore, the research evaluates different genomic prediction models that considered genotype by environment and genotype by trait interactions. While colour- traits demonstrate strong predictive power, other traits display moderate accuracies across different models and scenarios aligned with the expectations when using small reference populations. When designing the cross-validation to predict new individuals, the accuracy of the best multi-trait model was significantly higher than all single-trait models for dimension traits, but not for the remaining traits, which showed similar performances. However, the cross-validation strategy that masked random phenotypic records (i.e., mimicking the unbalanced phenotypic records) showed significantly higher accuracy for all traits except acid contents. The findings underscore the importance of understanding genetic architecture for informed breeding strategies. The research emphasises the need for larger population sizes and multivariate models to enhance gene tagging power and predictive accuracy to advance date palm breeding programs. These findings support more targeted breeding in date palm, improving productivity and resilience to various environments.