Book review

Abstract

Change in the partisan vote for Congress between 1992 and 1996 is examined for four congressional districts in the greater Seattle, WA area, where a marked shift from Democratic representation occurred in 1994. The analysis attempts to disaggregate the change into four components: that due to a pervasive shift in partisan sentiment; that due to differential change across districts, because of their contextual character; that due to identity with the district and its incumbents, a place effect; and that due to normal midterm drop in turnout. Support was found for all four propositions. A general sentiment shift and turnout effect occurred 1992–1994, influenced as well by differential change among social groups and across districts, while from 1994–1996, a partial Democratic recovery took place, but only among some groups and in some districts. Loss in Democratic support was greatest in suburban areas dominated by families with children. Thus context and place both matter.