Book Review: War and Power in the 21st century

Abstract

Paul Hirst Oxford: Polity, 2001, vi + 170pp., 11.99 [pounds sterling] (paperback). This is a comparatively slight book that attempts the daunting task of predicting the major developments in war, armed conflict and international relations in the 21st century. In particular it explores the potential impact of changes in military technology; information and communications technology; economic and environmental conditions; demography; international relations and trade; and political regimes and systems of governance. Despite its brevity it seeks to provide some historical depth to its analysis by reviewing major changes in warfare since the 1500s, pointing out that the present revolution in military affairs is but one in a series of similar events over the past 400 years. Central to this analysis is the role of the state and of the international system of states. The author rejects the notion that we are witnessing the terminal decline of the nation-state--quite the contrary in fact, as he foresees the status of the state as the principal political actor in international affairs being enhanced by the imperatives of a globalized system based on economic liberalism. He also argues that the present concern with human rights was presaged by earlier campaigns to abolish the slave trade and establish rights of national self-determination. Similarly, he points out that globalization has its roots in the expansion of the international economy prior to World War One and should not be considered as a unique contemporary phenomenon. Overall, Hirst's prognosis is rather bleak, with future conflict being seen as inherent in the present global system of inequality of wealth and power, while the chances of conflict will increase if the global system of economic liberalism breaks down. This book might have been regarded as a good primer on its subject matter prior to 11 September 2001. Indeed, Hirst was prescient enough to remark that terrorist groups are highly likely to carry out major attacks using weapons of mass destruction (WMD) against the advanced countries, and that `one such action may lead to a campaign of extermination against such groups sanctioned by the major powers' (p. 98). This prediction has largely come true. Unfortunately, Hirst did not foresee that it would be highjacked aircraft full of aviation gasoline and suicide squads of prospective martyrs rather than WMD, as such, that would accomplish the outrage on such a scale. What 9/11 has revealed is the potentially catastrophic vulnerability of advanced societies to attacks on infrastructure and civilian targets utilizing non-military and opportunistic means of assault. …