Boko Haram, pro-synergic conditions and community involvement in counterinsurgency

Abstract

Beyond the traditional military response to insurgent situations and acknowledging the internal mechanisms underlying insurgency, community involvement in counterinsurgency campaign became imperative especially with the emergence of Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) operation in Northeast Nigeria. However, the extent to which communal consciousness (CC), anti-insurgent sentiments (AIS), confidence in state security operatives (CSSO), perceived community support (PCS) and willingness to provide Intel to state security operatives (WPISSO) predict effective involvement in counterinsurgency (EICI) remained inadequately explained. To investigate this identified gap, a cross-sectional design involving the use of questionnaire was adopted to obtain data from 277 CJTF members in Northeastern Nigeria. Eight identified leaders or influential members of the local CJTF units were also interviewed for qualitative information. The quantitative data were analyzed using Spearman’s correlation coefficient and logistic regression. The study found that the five identified independent variables (CC, AIS, WPISSO, CSSO and PCS) correlate with community involvement in counterinsurgency campaign (CICI) (p < .01), while only three variables (CC, WPISSO and PCS) significantly predict EICI (p < .01). Integrative approaches that are built on the preconditions were considered as a more result-oriented in de-escalating and curbing the insurgency.