Body mass index trajectories from adolescent to young adult for incident high blood pressure and high plasma glucose.

Noushin Sadat Ahanchi,Fereidoun Azizi,Samaneh Asgari,Farzad Hadaegh,Richard J Munthali,Azra Ramezankhani,Tatsuo Shimosawa

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0213828

Abstract

ObjectivesTo explore the association between sex-specific adiposity trajectories among Adolescents to early adulthood with incident high blood pressure (HBP) and high plasma glucose (HPG).MethodsWe studied body mass index (BMI) trajectories among1159 (male = 517) and 664 (male = 263) Iranian adolescents, aged 12–20 years, for incident HPG and HBP, respectively. Latent Class Growth Mixture Modeling (LCGMM) on longitudinal data was used to determine sex-specific and distinct BMI trajectories. Logistic regressions were applied to estimate the relationship between latent class membership with HBP and HPG, considering normal trajectory as the reference.ResultsFor both HBP and HPG, LCGMM determined two and three distinct BMI trajectories in males and females, respectively. During a follow-up of 12Years 104 (male = 62) and 111(male = 59) cases of HPG and HBP were found, respectively. Among females, faster BMI increases (i.e. overweight to early obese trajectory) but not overweight (i.e. those with BMI = 27.3 kg/m2 at baseline) trajectories increased the risk of HPG by adjusted odds ratios (ORs), 2.74 (1.10–5.80) and 0.79 (0.22–2.82), respectively; regarding HBP, the corresponding value for overweight to late obese trajectory was 3.72 (1.37–11.02). Among males, for HBP, the overweight trajectory increased the risk [2.09 (1.04–4.03)]; however, for incident HPG, none of the trajectories showed significant risk.ConclusionsAmong females, trend of increasing BMI parallel with age can be a better predictor for risk of developing HPG and HBP than those with higher BMI at baseline.

Highlights

Overweight and obesity in adolescents have increased substantially in recent decades and are reported to affect around 30% of adolescents in some developed countries[1]
Faster body mass index (BMI) increases but not overweight trajectories increased the risk of high plasma glucose (HPG) by adjusted odds ratios (ORs), 2.74 (1.10–5.80) and 0.79 (0.22–2.82), respectively; regarding high blood pressure (HBP), the corresponding value for overweight to late obese trajectory was 3.72 (1.37–11.02)
Trend of increasing BMI parallel with age can be a better predictor for risk of developing HPG and HBP than those with higher BMI at baseline

Summary

Introduction

Overweight and obesity in adolescents have increased substantially in recent decades and are reported to affect around 30% of adolescents in some developed countries[1]. The rising prevalence of obesity has become a public health crisis among Iranian populations. In a cross-sectional nation-wide study performed in 30 provinces in Iran (2011–2012), among 14880 school students, aged 6–18 years, the prevalence of general obesity was 13.58% and 10.15% in males and females, respectively [2]. Among Tehranian adolescents, a rising prevalence of both general and central adiposity was reported during 9 years of follow-up; the overall adjusted prevalence of “at risk for overweight” and “overweight” changed from 14.8% and 4.7% in(1999–2001)to 23.0% and 9.2% in (2006–2008)[3]. According to a national study, the prevalence of high plasma glucose(HPG)[type diabetes (T2D) or pre diabetes]and high blood pressure(HBP)[hypertension or pre hypertension), among Iranian adults were reported to be 24.5 [4]and 71%, respectively[5]. Among Iranian adults, the population attribute able fraction (PAF) of T2D and hypertension were 24 and 17%, respectively, for all-cause mortality [6]

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