Body composition predicts prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing immune checkpoint inhibitors.

Abstract

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) with anti-PD-1/PD-L1 antibody are promising treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but lack reliable biomarkers of response. In the present study, we aimed to investigate the correlation between pre-treatment body composition measures (muscle, adipose, etc.) and the prognosis of patients with HCC treated with ICIs. We measured the total area of all skeletal muscles, total adipose tissue area, subcutaneous adipose tissue area, and visceral adipose tissue area at the level of the third lumbar vertebra using quantitative CT. Then, we calculated the skeletal muscle index, visceral adipose tissue index, subcutaneous adipose tissue index (SATI), and total adipose tissue index. The Cox regression model was used to determine the independent factors of the patient prognosis and construct a nomogram to predict survival. The consistency index (C-index) and calibration curve were used to determine the predictive accuracy and discrimination ability of the nomogram. Multivariate analysis revealed that the SATI (high- vs. low SATI; HR 0.251; 95% CI 0.109-0.577; P = 0.001), sarcopenia (sarcopenia vs. no sarcopenia; HR 2.171; 95% CI 1.100-4.284; P = 0.026), and portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT) (PVTT vs. No PVTT; HR 2.429; 95% CI 1. 197-4. 929; P = 0.014) were indicated as independent prognostic factors for OS in multivariate analysis. Multivariate analysis indicated that Child-Pugh class (HR 0.477, 95% CI 0.257-0.885, P = 0.019) and sarcopenia (HR 2.376, 95% CI 1.335-4.230, P = 0.003) were independent prognostic factors of PFS. We established a nomogram using SATI, SA, and PVTT to predict the 12-month and 18-month survival probability of HCC patients treated with ICIs. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.754 (95% CI 0.686-0.823), and the calibration curve confirmed that the predicted results were in good agreement with the actual observations. Subcutaneous adipose and sarcopenia are significant prognostic factors of patients with HCC receiving ICIs. A nomogram based on body composition parameters and clinical factors could well predict survival in HCC patients treated with ICIs.